Carbon Debt

Annex 1 Non-Annex 1

GHG Emissions

Countries

Legend

Carbon budget

The carbon budget or the global carbon budget is the allowed cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era (1850) to the year of net zero emissions, that will keep temperature increase below a specified limit. Operationally, this is the sum of:

The historical cumulative emissions from 1850 (pre-industrial times) to 2019, and
The remaining carbon budget from 2020 to the year of net-zero emissions.

Please note, values of historical cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2019 include all Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). Estimates for the remaining carbon budget are for CO₂, with the impact of non-CO₂ GHGs accounted for.

Historical Emissions

The term is used here to indicate past emissions for countries (1850 - 2019). Units are in GtCO₂eq.

Cumulative Emissions

These are the cumulative annual emissions of a country for the period 1850 (pre-industrial) to 2019 (present). Units are in GtCO₂eq.

Global carbon budget already consumed

These are the actual global historical cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era to 2019. Units are in GtCO₂eq.

Fair share of the carbon budget

For any period, the share of the cumulative emissions based on the share in the global population, for a contemporary base year (2019). Units are in GtCO₂eq.

Carbon Debt/Credit

This is the difference between:

Cumulative Emissions for a country, and
The country’s fair share of the global carbon budget already consumed.

The values for developed countries clearly indicate their responsibility and the massive carbon debt they owe the world.

Remaining carbon budget

This is the difference between:

The total carbon budget (for a given temperature limit and a specified probability of not exceeding it), and
The global historical cumulative emissions till 2019.

Fair share of RCB; 50% probability (GtCO₂eq)

This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC.

1.5°C

Fair share of RCB; 67% probability (GtCO₂eq)

This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 67% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 2.0ºC.

2°C

Countries covered by Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC

Article 4.8 of the convention states

"Article 4.8 of the convention states “In the implementation of the commitments in this Article, the Parties shall give full consideration to what actions are necessary under the Convention, including actions related to funding, insurance and the transfer of technology, to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change and/or the impact of the implementation of response measures, especially on:

Small island countries

Countries with low-lying coastal areas

Countries with arid and semi-arid areas, forested areas and areas liable to forest decay.

Countries with areas prone to natural disasters

Countries with areas liable to drought and desertification

Countries with areas of high urban atmospheric pollution

Countries with areas with fragile ecosystems, including mountainous ecosystems.

Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products.

Land-locked and transit countries.

Further, the Conference of the Parties may take actions, as appropriate, with respect to this paragraph.”

Value for key parameters

Global Historical Cumulative Emissions

1850 - 2019

2516

GtCO₂eq

Total Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3016

GtCO₂eq 1.5°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

2020 - Net Zero

500

GtCO₂eq 1.5°C

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3666

GtCO₂eq 2°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

2020 - Net Zero

1150

GtCO₂eq 2°C

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3666

GtCO₂eq 2°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

2020 - Net Zero

1150

GtCO₂eq 2°C

GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)

For a given country, GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population.
GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.
It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
Data is constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

Estimates of the Emission data

Taken from PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2019) v2.3.1.

Data for some regions/dependent territories may be missing.

Learn More

Estimates of the Carbon Budget

Taken from the IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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GDP per capita

Taken from the World Bank database.

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Population data

Taken from the World Bank.

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01 DEFINITIONS

Carbon budget

The historical cumulative emissions from 1850 (pre-industrial times) to 2019, and
The remaining carbon budget from 2020 to the year of net-zero emissions.

Historical Emissions

The term is used here to indicate past emissions for countries (1850 - 2019). Units are in GtCO₂eq.

Cumulative Emissions

These are the cumulative annual emissions of a country for the period 1850 (pre-industrial) to 2019 (present). Units are in GtCO₂eq.

Global carbon budget already consumed

These are the actual global historical cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era to 2019. Units are in GtCO₂eq.

Fair share of the carbon budget

For any period, the share of the cumulative emissions based on the share in the global population, for a contemporary base year (2019). Units are in GtCO₂eq.

Carbon Debt/Credit

This is the difference between:

Cumulative Emissions for a country, and
The country’s fair share of the global carbon budget already consumed.

The values for developed countries clearly indicate their responsibility and the massive carbon debt they owe the world.

Remaining carbon budget

This is the difference between:

The total carbon budget (for a given temperature limit and a specified probability of not exceeding it), and
The global historical cumulative emissions till 2019.

Fair share of RCB; 50% probability (GtCO₂eq)

This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC.

1.5°C

Fair share of RCB; 67% probability (GtCO₂eq)

This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 67% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 2.0ºC.

2°C

02 NOTES

Countries covered by Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC

Article 4.8 of the convention states

"Article 4.8 of the convention states “In the implementation of the commitments in this Article, the Parties shall give full consideration to what actions are necessary under the Convention, including actions related to funding, insurance and the transfer of technology, to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change and/or the impact of the implementation of response measures, especially on:

Small island countries

Countries with low-lying coastal areas

Countries with arid and semi-arid areas, forested areas and areas liable to forest decay.

Countries with areas prone to natural disasters

Countries with areas liable to drought and desertification

Countries with areas of high urban atmospheric pollution

Countries with areas with fragile ecosystems, including mountainous ecosystems.

Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products.

Land-locked and transit countries.

Further, the Conference of the Parties may take actions, as appropriate, with respect to this paragraph.”

Value for key parameters

Global Historical Cumulative Emissions

1850 - 2019

2516

GtCO₂eq

Total Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3016

GtCO₂eq 1.5°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

2020 - Net Zero

500

GtCO₂eq 1.5°C

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3666

GtCO₂eq 2°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

2020 - Net Zero

1150

GtCO₂eq 2°C

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3666

GtCO₂eq 2°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

2020 - Net Zero

1150

GtCO₂eq 2°C

GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)

For a given country, GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population.
GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.
It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
Data is constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

03 DATA SOURCES

Estimates of the Emission data

Taken from PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2019) v2.3.1.

Data for some regions/dependent territories may be missing.

Learn More

Estimates of the Carbon Budget

Learn More

GDP per capita

Taken from the World Bank database.

Learn More

Population data

Taken from the World Bank.

Learn More

The truth about Climate Equity

Carbon Debt

GHG Emissions

01 DEFINITIONS

Carbon budget

Historical Emissions

Cumulative Emissions

Global carbon budget already consumed

Fair share of the carbon budget

Carbon Debt/Credit

Remaining carbon budget

Fair share of RCB; 50% probability (GtCO2eq)

Fair share of RCB; 67% probability (GtCO2eq)

02 NOTES

Countries covered by Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC

Article 4.8 of the convention states

Value for key parameters

Global Historical Cumulative Emissions

Total Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)

03 DATA SOURCES

Estimates of the Emission data

Estimates of the Carbon Budget

GDP per capita

Population data

01 DEFINITIONS

Carbon budget

Historical Emissions

Cumulative Emissions

Global carbon budget already consumed

Fair share of the carbon budget

Carbon Debt/Credit

Remaining carbon budget

Fair share of RCB; 50% probability (GtCO2eq)

Fair share of RCB; 67% probability (GtCO2eq)

02 NOTES

Countries covered by Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC

Article 4.8 of the convention states

Value for key parameters

Global Historical Cumulative Emissions

Total Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)

03 DATA SOURCES

Estimates of the Emission data

Estimates of the Carbon Budget

GDP per capita

Population data

The carbon budget for a given temperature limit is a global resource, common to the entire world!

For restricting temperature rise to 1.5°C

From 1850 to Net Zero Year

By 2019

From 2019 to Net Zero Year

For restricting temperature rise to 2°C

From 1850 to Net Zero Year

By 2019

From 2019 to Net Zero Year

…it is extremely limited and exhausting rapidly! As a common resource of humanity, this global carbon budget should be equitably and fairly shared by all nations!

The carbon budget for a given temperature limit is a global resource, ...common to the entire world!

For restricting temperature rise to 1.5°C

From 1850 to Net Zero Year

By 2019

From 2019 to Net Zero Year

For restricting temperature rise to 2°C

From 1850 to Net Zero Year

By 2019

From 2019 to Net Zero Year

…it is extremely limited and exhausting rapidly! As a common resource of humanity, this global carbon budget should be equitably and fairly shared by all nations!

Carbon budget share

Fair share of RCB; 50% probability (GtCO₂eq)

Fair share of RCB; 67% probability (GtCO₂eq)

Fair share of RCB; 50% probability (GtCO₂eq)

Fair share of RCB; 67% probability (GtCO₂eq)