Carbon Credit / Debt Map and Historical Emissions
Total carbon budget
The total carbon budget is the allowed cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era (1850) to net zero, that will keep temperature increase below the specified limit. Operationally, this is the sum of the historical cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times (1850) to 2019, and the remaining carbon budget from 2020 to net-zero. The values of historical cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2019 include all greenhouse gases. Estimates for the remaining carbon budget are for CO2, with the impact of non-CO2 greenhouse gases accounted for.
The term is used here to indicate annual emissions for countries from 1850 - 2019.
Actual cumulative emissions
These are the cumulative emissions of a country for the period 1850 to 2019. (GtCO2eq).
Global carbon budget already consumed
These are the actual global historical cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era to 2019.
Fair share of the carbon budget
For any period, the share of the cumulative emissions based on the share in the global population, for a contemporary base year.
This is the difference between the actual cumulative emissions for a country and its fair share of the global carbon budget already consumed. The values for developed countries clearly indicate their responsibility and the massive carbon debt they owe the world
Remaining Carbon Budget
This is the difference between the total carbon budget (for a given temperature limit and a specified probability of not exceeding it) and the global historical cumulative emissions till 2019.
Fair share of RCB; 50% prob for 1.5ºC (GtCO2eq)
This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 1.5 ºC.
Fair share of RCB; 50% prob for 2.0ºC (GtCO2eq)
This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 2.0 ºC.
Countries covered by Article 4.8
Article 4.8 of the convention states “In the implementation of the commitments in this Article, the Parties shall give full consideration to what actions are necessary under the Convention, including actions related to funding, insurance and the transfer of technology, to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change and/or the impact of the implementation of response measures, especially on:
- Small island countries
- Countries with low-lying coastal areas
- Countries with arid and semi-arid areas, forested areas and areas liable to forest decay
- Countries with areas prone to natural disasters
- Countries with areas liable to drought and desertification
- Countries with areas of high urban atmospheric pollution
- Countries with areas with fragile ecosystems, including mountainous ecosystems
- Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products
- Land-locked and transit countries.
Further, the Conference of the Parties may take actions, as appropriate, with respect to this paragraph.”
GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)
GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data is constant 2010 U.S. dollars.
Value for key parameters
- Global historical cumulative emissions (1850-2019) are 2516 GtCO2eq.
- Total carbon budget (1850 to Net zero) is 3016 GtCO2eq for a 50% probability of staying below 1.5ºC temperature rise.
- Remaining carbon budget (2020 to Net zero) is 500 GtCO2eq for a 50% probability of staying below 1.5ºC temperature rise
- Total carbon budget (1850 to Net zero) is 3866 GtCO2eq for a 50% probability of staying below 2ºC temperature rise.
- Remaining carbon budget (2020 to Net zero) is 1350 GtCO2eq for a 50% probability of staying below 2ºC temperature rise.
List of data sources used
- Estimates of the emission data are taken from PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2019) v2.3.1. Data for some regions/dependent territories may be missing. Available at https://zenodo.org/record/5494497#.YU13Pp0zbIU
- The estimates of the carbon budget has been taken from the IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeavailable at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf
- GDP per capita is taken from the World Bank database. Available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?view=chart
- Population data is taken from the World Bank available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
Historical GHG Emissions Trajectories [GtCO2eq]
1990 - 2019
- Data for annual GHG emissions that includes all Kyoto Gases.
- Values are in Giga tonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent [GtCO2eq].
- Data is for the time period 1850 - 2019 for all countries.
- Data for some regions/dependent territories may be missing.
PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2019) v2.3.1
available at : https://zenodo.org/record/5494497#.YU13Pp0zbIU
Gütschow, J.; Günther, A.; Pflüger, M. (2021): The PRIMAP-hist national historical
emissions time series v2.3.1 (1850-2019). zenodo. doi:10.5281/zenodo.5494497.