Carbon budget

The carbon budget or the global carbon budget is the allowed cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era (1850) to the year of net zero emissions, that will keep temperature increase below a specified limit. Operationally, this is the sum of:

  1. The historical cumulative emissions from 1850 (pre-industrial times) to 2019, and
  2. The remaining carbon budget from 2020 to the year of net-zero emissions.

Please note, values of historical cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2019 include all Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). Estimates for the remaining carbon budget are for CO2, with the impact of non-CO2 GHGs accounted for.

Historical Emissions

The term is used here to indicate past emissions for countries (1850 - 2019). Units are in GtCO2eq.

Cumulative Emissions

These are the cumulative annual emissions of a country for the period 1850 (pre-industrial) to 2019 (present). Units are in GtCO2eq.

Global carbon budget already consumed

These are the actual global historical cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era to 2019. Units are in GtCO2eq.

Fair share of the carbon budget

For any period, the share of the cumulative emissions based on the share in the global population, for a contemporary base year (2019). Units are in GtCO2eq.

Carbon Debt/Credit

This is the difference between:

  1. Cumulative Emissions for a country, and
  2. The country’s fair share of the global carbon budget already consumed.

The values for developed countries clearly indicate their responsibility and the massive carbon debt they owe the world.

Remaining carbon budget

This is the difference between:

  1. The total carbon budget (for a given temperature limit and a specified probability of not exceeding it), and
  2. The global historical cumulative emissions till 2019.
Fair share of RCB; 50% probability (GtCO2eq)

This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC.

1.5°C
Fair share of RCB; 67% probability (GtCO2eq)

This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 67% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 2.0ºC.

2°C

Countries covered by Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC
Article 4.8 of the convention states
"Article 4.8 of the convention states “In the implementation of the commitments in this Article, the Parties shall give full consideration to what actions are necessary under the Convention, including actions related to funding, insurance and the transfer of technology, to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change and/or the impact of the implementation of response measures, especially on:
  1. Small island countries
  2. Countries with low-lying coastal areas
  3. Countries with arid and semi-arid areas, forested areas and areas liable to forest decay.
  4. Countries with areas prone to natural disasters
  5. Countries with areas liable to drought and desertification
  6. Countries with areas of high urban atmospheric pollution
  7. Countries with areas with fragile ecosystems, including mountainous ecosystems.
  8. Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products.
  9. Land-locked and transit countries.
Further, the Conference of the Parties may take actions, as appropriate, with respect to this paragraph.”
Value for key parameters
Global Historical Cumulative Emissions

1850 - 2019

2516

GtCO2eq

Total Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3016

GtCO2eq 1.5°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

2020 - Net Zero

500

GtCO2eq 1.5°C

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3666

GtCO2eq 2°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

2020 - Net Zero

1150

GtCO2eq 2°C

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3666

GtCO2eq 2°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

2020 - Net Zero

1150

GtCO2eq 2°C

GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)
  1. For a given country, GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population.
  2. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.
  3. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
  4. Data is constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

Estimates of the Emission data

Taken from PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2019) v2.3.1.

Data for some regions/dependent territories may be missing.

Learn More
Estimates of the Carbon Budget

Taken from the IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Learn More
GDP per capita

Taken from the World Bank database.

Learn More
Population data

Taken from the World Bank.

Learn More

01 DEFINITIONS

Carbon budget

The carbon budget or the global carbon budget is the allowed cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era (1850) to the year of net zero emissions, that will keep temperature increase below a specified limit. Operationally, this is the sum of:

  1. The historical cumulative emissions from 1850 (pre-industrial times) to 2019, and
  2. The remaining carbon budget from 2020 to the year of net-zero emissions.

Please note, values of historical cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2019 include all Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). Estimates for the remaining carbon budget are for CO2, with the impact of non-CO2 GHGs accounted for.

Historical Emissions

The term is used here to indicate past emissions for countries (1850 - 2019). Units are in GtCO2eq.

Cumulative Emissions

These are the cumulative annual emissions of a country for the period 1850 (pre-industrial) to 2019 (present). Units are in GtCO2eq.

Global carbon budget already consumed

These are the actual global historical cumulative emissions from the pre-industrial era to 2019. Units are in GtCO2eq.

Fair share of the carbon budget

For any period, the share of the cumulative emissions based on the share in the global population, for a contemporary base year (2019). Units are in GtCO2eq.

Carbon Debt/Credit

This is the difference between:

  1. Cumulative Emissions for a country, and
  2. The country’s fair share of the global carbon budget already consumed.

The values for developed countries clearly indicate their responsibility and the massive carbon debt they owe the world.

Remaining carbon budget

This is the difference between:

  1. The total carbon budget (for a given temperature limit and a specified probability of not exceeding it), and
  2. The global historical cumulative emissions till 2019.
Fair share of RCB; 50% probability (GtCO2eq)

This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 1.5ºC.

1.5°C
Fair share of RCB; 67% probability (GtCO2eq)

This is the fair share for each country of only the remaining carbon budget for a 67% probability of limiting temperature rise over pre-industrial levels to 2.0ºC.

2°C

02 NOTES

Countries covered by Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC
Article 4.8 of the convention states
"Article 4.8 of the convention states “In the implementation of the commitments in this Article, the Parties shall give full consideration to what actions are necessary under the Convention, including actions related to funding, insurance and the transfer of technology, to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change and/or the impact of the implementation of response measures, especially on:
  1. Small island countries
  2. Countries with low-lying coastal areas
  3. Countries with arid and semi-arid areas, forested areas and areas liable to forest decay.
  4. Countries with areas prone to natural disasters
  5. Countries with areas liable to drought and desertification
  6. Countries with areas of high urban atmospheric pollution
  7. Countries with areas with fragile ecosystems, including mountainous ecosystems.
  8. Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products.
  9. Land-locked and transit countries.
Further, the Conference of the Parties may take actions, as appropriate, with respect to this paragraph.”
Value for key parameters
Global Historical Cumulative Emissions

1850 - 2019

2516

GtCO2eq

Total Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3016

GtCO2eq 1.5°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 50% probability

2020 - Net Zero

500

GtCO2eq 1.5°C

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3666

GtCO2eq 2°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

2020 - Net Zero

1150

GtCO2eq 2°C

Total Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

1850 - Net Zero

3666

GtCO2eq 2°C

Remaining Carbon Budget for a 67% probability

2020 - Net Zero

1150

GtCO2eq 2°C

GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)
  1. For a given country, GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population.
  2. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.
  3. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
  4. Data is constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

03 DATA SOURCES

Estimates of the Emission data

Taken from PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2019) v2.3.1.

Data for some regions/dependent territories may be missing.

Learn More
Estimates of the Carbon Budget

Taken from the IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Learn More
GDP per capita

Taken from the World Bank database.

Learn More
Population data

Taken from the World Bank.

Learn More

The carbon budget for a given temperature limit is a global resource, common to the entire world!

For restricting temperature rise to 1.5°C

with 50% probability

From 1850 to Net Zero Year

The Total carbon budget available to the world to meet
this goal.

By 2019

More than 4/5th of this budget had already
been exhausted.

From 2019 to Net Zero Year

The Remaining carbon budget is...

500

GtCO2eq

3015.852515

GtCO2eq

3015.85

GtCO2eq

For restricting temperature rise to 2°C

with 67% probability

From 1850 to Net Zero Year

The Total carbon budget available to the world to meet
this goal.

By 2019

More than 2/3rd of this budget had already
been exhausted.

From 2019 to Net Zero Year

The Remaining carbon budget is...

1150

GtCO2eq

3665.852515

GtCO2eq

3665.85

GtCO2eq

…it is extremely limited and exhausting rapidly! As a common resource of humanity, this global carbon budget should be equitably and fairly shared by all nations!

Is the global carbon budget allocated equitably between

developed, Annex 1 countries and developing, Non Annex 1 countries?

Annex 1 nations have depleted a major portion of the carbon budget available to the world.

Non-Annex 1 nations are left with only a small fraction of the global carbon budget.

By 2019…

Annex 1 nations accounted for a significant share of global historical emissions… above 60%

However…

Only a small percentage of the world’s population live in Annex 1 nations… 17%

The source of the climate crisis which threatens humanity today…

Disproportionate share of the global carbon budget consumed by

developed countries through their excessive historical, contemporary

and even future cumulative emissions.

From 1850 to 2019…

Actual Cumulative Emissions of Annex 1 countries stood at… 1464 GtCO2eq

But…

Their Fair Share of Emissions was only… 439 GtCO2eq

This means the Carbon Debt that Annex 1 countries owe to the world stands at… 1025 GtCO2eq

At a conservative carbon price of $30/tCO2 the Carbon Debt equals to… $30 trillion

All considerations of Climate Equity must

begin with this perspective…

annex 1 map image
non annex 1 map image
Share of Emissions

38.9%

Non-Annex 1

61.1%

Annex 1

annex 1 pie chart image
non annex 1 pie chart image
Annex 1 Population

1464

GtCO2eq

graph image
carbon dept graph image

1025 GtCO2eq

Carbon Debt

fair share of emission image
graph line image

439 GtCO2eq

Fair Share of Emissions

graph line image
Actual Cumulative Emissions since 1850
tree image
$30 trillion and rising…

The carbon budget for a given temperature limit is a global resource, ...common to the entire world!

For restricting temperature rise to 1.5°C

with 50% probability

From 1850 to Net Zero Year

By 2019

From 2019 to Net Zero Year

The Total carbon budget available to the world to meet
this goal.

More than 4/5th of this budget had already been exhausted.

The available carbon budget remaining.

500

GtCO2eq

3015.852515

GtCO2eq

3015.85

GtCO2eq

For restricting temperature rise to 2°C

with 67% probability

From 1850 to Net Zero Year

By 2019

From 2019 to Net Zero Year

The Total carbon budget available to the world to meet
this goal.

More than 2/3rd of this budget had already been exhausted.

The available carbon budget remaining.

1150

GtCO2eq

3665.852515

GtCO2eq

3665.85

GtCO2eq

…it is extremely limited and exhausting rapidly! As a common resource of humanity, this global carbon budget should be equitably and fairly shared by all nations!

Is the global carbon budget allocated equitably...

between developed, Annex 1 countries and developing, Non Annex 1 countries?

Annex 1 nations have depleted a major portion of the carbon budget available to the world.

Non-Annex 1 nations are

left with only a small fraction of the global carbon budget.

By 2019…

Annex 1 nations accounted for a significant share of global historical emissions…

above 60%

However…

Only a small percentage of the world’s population live in Annex 1 nations…

just 17%

The source of the climate crisis which

threatens humanity today!

Disproportionate share of the global carbon budget consumed by developed countries

...through their excessive historical, contemporary and even future cumulative emissions.

From 1850 to 2019…

Actual Cumulative Emissions of Annex 1 countries stood at…

1464 GtCO2eq

But…

Their Fair Share of Emissions was only…

439 GtCO2eq

This means the Carbon Debt that Annex 1 countries owe to the world stands at…

1025 GtCO2eq

At a conservative carbon price of $30/tCO2 the Carbon Debt equals to…

$30 trillion

All considerations of Climate Equity must begin with this perspective…

non annex 1 map image
annex 1 map image

Non-Annex 1

38.9%

Annex 1

61.1%

annex 1 pie chart image
non annex 1 pie chart image

1464

GtCO2eq

1025 GtCO2eq

Carbon Debt

439 GtCO2eq

Fair Share of Emissions

Actual Cumulative Emissions since 1850

Carbon budget share

Is the global carbon budget appropriated equitably between developed, Annex 1 nations and developing, Non-Annex 1 nations?

FIND OUT NOW